Season Accuracy
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Season just started
Today's Games
0
0 NRFI leans
High Confidence
0
No data yet
Value Bets Found
0
No bets tracked yet
Model ROI (2026)
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Flat-stake on value bets
How the model works
The engine uses a Poisson scoring model: for each half-inning, expected runs (λ) are derived from the pitcher's historical first-inning NRFI rate via λ = −ln(NRFI Rate), then adjusted multiplicatively for the opposing lineup's first-inning offensive factor, park factor, and weather.
P(NRFI) = P(home scores 0) × P(away scores 0) = e−λhome × e−λaway
Value bets are identified when the model's implied probability exceeds the bookmaker's by ≥3%. Kelly Criterion (25% fractional) sizes the recommended wager.