- accuracy
- Percentage of predictions that were correct (0–100%), only available after games complete
- backtested
- A prediction generated by replaying a past season rather than from a live slate. Backtested rows use point-in-time pitcher and team stats but synthetic month-average weather and no odds, which pulls measured accuracy toward the raw league NRFI rate
- bbRate
- Walk rate; percentage of plate appearances ending in a walk (0–100%)
- calibration
- How closely predicted probabilities match observed outcomes. Predictions are grouped into 10% probability bands and each band's actual NRFI rate is compared to the band — a well-calibrated model tracks the diagonal
- confidence
- The tier and number on a prediction (e.g. High 22). Both come from CONVICTION — how far the NRFI probability sits from a coin flip, scored 0–100 as |p − 50%| × 2 — so they always agree: High is 18 and up, Medium 11 to 17, Low below 11. It measures how decisive the call is, not how much data stands behind it. Only the High-vs-rest split is backed by a measurable accuracy gap (+7.0pp); Medium and Low are within noise of each other. Older rows in your history keep the tier they were saved with, assigned by the previous rule off the reliability score, so a High on an archived prediction does not imply that conviction cutoff
- confidenceScore
- A reliability score for the INPUTS (10–98), shown in the confidence tooltip rather than on the pill — it is not a forecast of winning, and until the 2026-08 retier it set the confidence tier, which is why seeing it beside one looked contradictory. It starts at 50 and moves with starter first-inning sample size, how stable both starters' recent form has been, and simulation variance. Measured against outcomes across 3,444 verified predictions it carried no signal — the gap between its top and bottom quintile was −0.006 hit rate (z = −0.22) — so it should not be used to rank or compare picks. A high tier next to a middling score means a decisive call built on thin or noisy inputs
- dome
- Retractable or permanent roof protecting field from weather; eliminates wind/weather factors
- edge
- Expected value of the bet relative to public betting odds; positive = favorable for NRFI
- ensembleModel
- Combination of multiple prediction models (Poisson, Markov, ZIP) for increased robustness
- flatStake
- A betting scheme that risks the same amount on every play. P/L in units means multiples of that one stake: a losing bet is −1.00u and a winner returns the decimal odds minus one
- kelly
- Kelly Criterion fraction; recommended bet size as a percentage of bankroll (use cautiously)
- kRate
- Strikeout rate; percentage of plate appearances ending in strikeout (0–100%)
- nrfiRate
- Empirical rate at which neither team scored in the first inning over a sample period (0–100%)
- ops
- On-base plus slugging; combined measure of offensive output (scale: 0–1.0+)
- parkFactor
- Adjustment factor for home-run-friendly or pitcher-friendly stadiums (0.8–1.2)
- playoff
- Post-season tournament; higher intensity and different roster composition than regular season
- pNRFI
- Poisson-calculated probability that neither team scores a run in the first inning (0–100%)
- pricedBet
- A settled prediction that carried an odds snapshot when it was made. Only these can produce a profit/loss figure, so P/L and ROI are calculated over the priced count rather than over all settled predictions — historical backfills store no odds and are therefore excluded
- pYRFI
- Poisson-calculated probability that at least one team scores a run in the first inning (0–100%)
- relief
- A pitcher who enters the game after the starter, typically in later innings
- roi
- Return on investment if you bet at published odds on all recommendations (e.g., +12.5%)
- settled
- A prediction whose game has finished and whose first-inning result has been recorded. Accuracy percentages are calculated over settled predictions only — pending ones are excluded from both the numerator and the denominator
- starter
- The primary pitcher assigned to start the game, usually pitching the first 5–7 innings
- tracked
- Every prediction saved to your history, settled or still pending. Always at least as large as the settled count, so it is not the denominator of any accuracy figure
- weather
- Environmental conditions (temperature, wind direction/speed) affecting ball carry and play
- woba
- Weighted on-base average; measures offensive value per plate appearance (scale: 0–.450)
- xR
- Expected runs in the first inning, calculated from Statcast data and team stats
- yrfiRate
- Empirical rate at which a team scored in the first inning over a sample period (0–100%)